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On February 6, the press conference on the economic operation of China’s oil and chemical industry held by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation in 2018 was held in Beijing. At the meeting, “2017 oil and chemical industry economic operation and 2018 forecast report” (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report predicts that in 2018 the overall level of fertilizer prices will be roughly the same as that of the previous year, the price of nitrogen fertilizer will decrease, the price of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer will rise slightly, and the price of compound fertilizer will be basically stable.
The report predicts that by 2018 China’s total fertilizer consumption will remain at 56 million tons (pure), unchanged from the previous year. Fertilizer exports may reproduce the growth momentum, but not too much. According to market conditions and the characteristics of price fluctuations over the years to judge, in 2018 the overall level of fertilizer prices roughly the same as the previous year. Among them, the price of nitrogen fell, phosphate and potassium rose slightly, the basic stability of compound fertilizer. The average annual price of urea is estimated to be around 1,660 yuan (t price, the same below), down 1.1% from the same period of last year. The average price of diammonium phosphate is about 2,580 yuan, up 4.0%; the average domestic price of potassium chloride is 2,050 yuan, up 4.5% Sulfur-based compound fertilizer (45%) average price of about 2,300 yuan, up 1.6%.
Looking back to 2017, the performance of China’s fertilizer market was weak, but the price rebounded from that of the previous year and the main varieties were mixed. Among them, nitrogen (urea) rose relatively large, phosphate compound fertilizer, potash fertilizer continued to decline, compound fertilizer rose slightly.
The report pointed out that in recent years, China’s chemical fertilizer industry, the cost of rising rapidly, the cost of the current support for the price changes in the fertilizer market, the most important factor. In 2016, the cost of revenue per 100 yuan of chemical fertilizer industry exceeded 88 yuan to 88.96 yuan, surpassing that of the basic chemical raw materials manufacturing industry and ranking first in the chemical industry. In 2017, the cost of main fertilizer for every 100 yuan in the fertilizer industry reached 87.97 yuan, still topped the list. Among them, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer per 100 yuan main income costs reached 90.42 yuan and 89.85 yuan.
In addition to rising costs, the decline in supply is also one of the features of the fertilizer industry in 2017. The report shows that in 2017, the domestic market, fertilizer consumption continued to decline, the apparent decline in total consumption of about 1%. Among them, the nitrogen fell more than 10%, about 1% decline in phosphate fertilizer, 2.5% decline in diammonium, potash increased 4.6%. Fertilizer exports, the amount continued to decline, a decline of 9.6% and 7.4%. Export continued to slump, increasing the pressure on the domestic market.
At present, the structural contradictions in China’s fertilizer market are still prominent. Bulk consumption of chemical fertilizers such as urea, calcium supplements and diammonium has reached the limit.
The report suggests that the current restructuring of chemical fertilizers should conform to the trend of industrial restructuring such as agriculture, forestry and environmental protection. While vigorously improving the quality and efficiency of traditional bulk commodities, the Company will make every effort to develop differentiated, personalized and specialized new products to meet the demands of high quality social development .
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